CANADA'S IMPENDING AIRLINE MECHANIC CRISIS

AIRLINES and MRO's IN CANADA WILL FACE A SEVERE MECHANICAL TRADES SHORTAGE

   Airlines and airline manufacture, overhaul and repair facilities (MRO's) in Canada will face a severe mechanical trades crisis within five years, say many airline industry observers. This crisis will result in reduced flight availability for Canadian travelers and a huge economic loss for the nation.

   The chart above displays the average number of airline employees, by group, from 2012-2017. Corporate human resource conventional wisdom holds that your employee replacement rate should be around ten per cent. This percentage covers attrition for promotions, retirements, long term illnesses, terminations, resignations, and unpredictable events. With the exception of the airline management group which has declined in numbers, the remaining groups have kept pace with attrition, except for the maintenance personnel group, whose numbers increased by only three per cent.

   The industry crisis point will be the numbers of qualified mechanical trades people reaching retirement age by 2025. During periods of strong economic growth (1970-1980), the airlines hired large numbers of trade mechanics and apprentices. After 1980, there were almost no new hires. Now, that huge group in the airline mechanical trades hired in the 1970-1980's is approaching retirement. A Machinists Union study suggests the retirement exit from the industry could be as high as 41 per cent. 

   This exodus from the industry is documented in an August 2019 article by Lisa Gordon in Skies Magazine, a periodical that focuses on aviation issues in Canada. "According to Transport Canada data provided to Skies, there were 17,662 active AME license holders living in Canada as of June 26, 2019. Half of them (8,762) are currently above age 50. Of those, just over 50 per cent is actually above age 60," Gordon said.

   Another industry obstacle is a lack of graduating high school students considering the aviation trades as a career. Ottawa Citizen Reporter Tom Spears highlighted this obstacle in his October 2018 report. Spears noted guidance counselors are not highlighting good-paying aviation mechanical trade jobs to  graduates, and especially not to graduating women or indigenous students. 
Graduates may be less than enthusiastic about the "long haul" for someone considering the airline mechanical trades.

   The long haul includes costly trade schools, rigorous training programs with established standards, a lengthy apprenticeship leading to certification, and finally, licensing (and more training courses) for signing authority on specific aircraft types, like the Boeing 777. Many new hires seek multiple licenses, as it improves their working conditions (shift bidding) and their pay grade (the more licenses you hold, the bigger the pay cheque). 

   The good news is that these licenses are "portable", which means all airline employers and government authorities recognize them. The not-so-good news is that access to the licensing programs (their type and frequency) are often controlled by the airlines, and seat availability can be restricted. In addition to  all this regulation, junior mechanics also face an explosion in new aircraft technology. Sheet metal mechanics are now learning how to repair carbon-fiber composites used in aircraft bodies, and aircraft electricians now need to understand computer coding when replacing electronic components. Mechanics face constant job knowledge updates to ensure that Canada's worldwide reputation for aviation safety excellence is not diminished.  

   The bright side of this report is that the airline industry does offer decent wages, support for trade category training, and some of the best benefits in Canada for its maintenance personnel. Quality of life issues are also been addressed, with more aircraft getting their service checks done on day shift now, as opposed to midnight shift previously. 

   The dark side, however, is that there is a serious crisis coming for the industry, the air traveler, and the Canadian economy within five years. That crisis requires immediate attention and action from both the federal government, which regulates the industry, and the provincial governments, who control education and trade school jurisdiction. When the Apollo XIII space mission was faced with a rescue crisis, the words used by the mission control director best sum up the impending air transport mechanical trades shortage in Canada - "Gentlemen, failure is not an option!"